Operating System market share prediction

When I wrote One browser to rule them all, I also wanted to speculate a little in where the operating system market might be heading. Suffice to say, Vista hasn’t meet its expectations, and Mac OS X has gained a lot of attention through iPhone and iPod.

Current market shares

If you take a look at the current operating system statistics (more detailed breakdown), it basically looks like this:

  • Windows 90.6%
  • Mac OS X 7.8%
  • Linux 0.9%

Possible future market share prediction

It seems like more and more people get their eyes open for Mac OS X and Apple products in general, which is overall a good thing, I think; as long as we get some equilibrium, please. Just as with web browsers, what would be really good if we got two or three major players having about roughly the same market share.

And, to be honest, I think it could be a possibility, if Apple were to let OS X free!.

I also think Linux-based operating systems are gaining more and more popularity, especially when it becomes more targeted at regular users, most notably in the form of Ubuntu. My mom has been using Ubuntu for over a year now, and making the switch from Windows XP to Ubuntu was by far the best move I’ve done in my support-for-parent business. She has virtually had no problems since the change.


So, let’s start a little guessing-game of how the operating system market share will look like in two years:

  • Windows 75%
  • Mac OS X 22%
  • Linux 3%

(yes, all the numbers come from a very scientific calculation… :-) )

What’s your take, and wishes?

Posted in Apple/Mac,Technology |

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